Apologies for my absence

Paradoxically I choose today to write again - a day that I really dont feel well.

I saw a video on youtube of a professor who had terminal liver cancer. he gave his last lecture back in December last year, and finally passed away on July 25th of 2008. No - im not terminally ill, but part of my inspiration for this blog was to leave something behind - something long lasting, I hope Im going to be long lasting too but you never know.

But I dont feel well so Im not doing much but read and feel miserable. I thought I would revisit my blog because oil prices have tumbled in what experts are calling a market correction.

This is where I should point readers to my predictions back some time ago about a correction. At the time I made that prediction oil did start to fall but it only lasted a few days then some supply worries and talk of Iran made prices rise. This is apparently the real correction, although prices bounced today some. We havnt made it below 120 yet, which I kind of thought would be our floor. So time will tell if we are done correcting or if there is a little more to come. I feel that some overshoot and correction was due, but so far although the price has fallen sharply im not seeing a lot of folks celebrating - perhaps because the majority are now aware of the longer term picture and only a fool would call the spike "over" and predict the return of permanently cheap oil.

There is still plenty of bullish news on oil all over the web, but now its becoming balanced by the amount of news concerning demand destruction and changes to lifestyle.

Im not the only one who bought a two wheeled gas miser. But bicycles, walking and mass transit are all seeing major upticks in popularity. And of course SUVs and trucks are increasingly becoming relics of an older age. All this means that at least the US demand for oil is falling and can be shown to be at least somewhat "elastic".