Predictions

This is where I leave planet earth behind and start making stuff up based on what I think might happen. Its a time capsule for later. I can come back and find out how much money I would have won or lost if I was actually wealthy enough to play in the commodities market.

My first statement - might seem kind of bold, especially considering that ive been reading all the peak oil doom and gloom latley.

I think the price of oil will fall. A bit.
Between now (late May) and about August, I think $130/bbl will return to about $120. I dont think the information that we have got us to $130. The last bit of run up seemed to be more speculation betting on severe supply disruptions. I dont think those panned out so I think we will see the market take a breather. In addition a lot of the extra money in oil came here because stocks and currency wasnt a safe place. I think theres a good chance people will start moving some money back to those places.

Then we have an IEA report due in November. After August we also have the election run up. I have a feeling that by then, maybe Sept we will start to see some more buying. I think the IEA report will be very bearing and maybe even catch a few people out. Im sure some info will leak out before the official report, so it may not be so sudden a shock.

So after about September/Oct I would expect to see it soar again.

Oh yeah, Obama wins the election, and the Cubs win the world series.
Sorry couldnt resist.